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Blackstone Inc. (BX) Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Blackstone delivered one of its strongest quarters ever, with record Fee Related Earnings (FRE) of $1.8B ($1.50/share) and Distributable Earnings (DE) of $2.17B ($1.69/share), driven by a large infrastructure crystallization and broad fundraising/deployment momentum .
  • AUM reached $1.127T (+8% y/y); quarterly inflows ($57.5B), deployment ($41.6B), and realizations ($25.9B) were the highest in 2.5 years, underscoring improving transaction markets and platform scale .
  • GAAP revenue was $3.08B with diluted EPS of $0.92; net income margin expanded sharply vs prior year (to ~43%) on stronger performance allocations despite real estate equity funds showing negative Q4 appreciation (Opportunistic -5.1%, Core+ -0.8%) .
  • 2025 setup: Infrastructure’s outsized Q4 crystallization will not recur; management expects smaller incentive crystallizations in Q2 and Q3, DE tailwinds from BXPE FRPR quarterly eligibility, and H2‑skewed realization recovery (near-term led by Private Equity), while real estate exits lag the broader cycle .
  • Dividend raised to $1.44 for Q4; balance sheet remains strong ($9.7B cash, A+/A+ ratings), with a $750M 10-year note at 5.00% issued in December to support growth .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record fee engine and distributable cash: FRE hit $1.836B (+76% y/y), DE reached $2.169B (+56% y/y), supported by a major infrastructure crystallization and BXPE’s first FRPR crystallization . CEO: “one of the best quarters in our history… inflows, investment activity and realizations all reached their highest levels in two-and-a-half years” .
  • Capital formation and activity surged: Q4 inflows $57.5B, deployment $41.6B, realizations $25.9B; fee‑earning AUM rose to $830.7B (+9% y/y) and perpetual capital AUM to $444.8B (+12% y/y) .
  • Credit & Insurance momentum: AUM rose 20% y/y to $375.5B, segment DE up 27% y/y in Q4; private credit gross return 3.1% in Q4 and 15.7% for 2024; investment-grade private credit and insurance channels scaled materially .

What Went Wrong

  • Real estate equity softness in the quarter: Opportunistic funds -5.1% and Core+ -0.8% on an 80bp Q4 rise in 10Y Treasury and stronger USD; segment DE fell y/y to $465M (from $534M) .
  • Net Accrued Performance Revenues (NAPR) fell q/q to $6.3B ($5.14/share) as realizations outpaced accruals, a normal byproduct of elevated monetization .
  • Outsized Q4 infrastructure crystallization is non‑recurring; 2025 FRPR from infrastructure will be smaller and periodic (Q2/Q3), creating a high hurdle for year‑over‑year comparisons in those lines .

Financial Results

Headline P&L, Cash Earnings, and Margin

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
GAAP Total Revenues ($MM)$1,285.0 $3,663.2 $3,082.6
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.20 $1.02 $0.92
DE per Common Share ($)$1.11 $1.01 $1.69
Net Income Margin (%)8.5% (109.1/1,285.0) 42.7% (1,564.6/3,663.2) 43.1% (1,328.8/3,082.6)

Notes: Margin computed from cited GAAP Net Income and Revenues.

Segment Distributable Earnings ($MM)

SegmentQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Real Estate$534.4 $540.4 $464.7
Private Equity$457.1 $423.8 $1,229.4
Credit & Insurance$324.2 $375.2 $410.2
Multi-Asset Investing$150.6 $61.3 $332.8
Total Segment DE$1,466.3 $1,400.7 $2,437.0

KPIs

KPIQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total AUM ($MM)$1,040,192 $1,107,628 $1,127,180
Fee‑Earning AUM ($MM)$762,608 $820,457 $830,709
Inflows ($B)n/a$40.5 $57.5
Deployment ($B)n/a$34.0 $41.6
Realizations ($B)n/a$22.7 $25.9
Net Accrued Performance Revenues ($B)$5.835 $6.992 $6.281
NAPR per share ($)n/a$5.72 $5.14
Dividend per Share ($)$0.94 $0.86 $1.44

Guidance Changes

Metric/TopicPeriodPrevious (Q3 2024)Current (Q4 2024)Change
Infrastructure FRPR crystallizations (BIP)2025 cadenceAnticipated major Q4’24 crystallization (completed) No large annual crystallization in 2025; expect smaller crystallizations in Q2 & Q3 Lower, smoothed timing
BXPE FRPR eligibility2025+FRPR began with first crystallization in 2024 Now eligible to generate FRPR quarterly Positive structural tailwind
Infra retail vehicle FRPR eligibilityQ4 2025Launched Jan with strong initial close Eligible in Q4’25 for full‑year 2025 gains Positive in late 2025
Realizations outlook2025“More constructive” in 2025 Near term concentrated in Private Equity; materially higher H2’25; real estate exits later Improved but back‑half weighted
FRE margin commentary2025Stability with operating leverage over time “Good starting point” on OpEx and base fees; manage comp holistically; invest in growth initiatives Stable baseline, investment mode
DividendQ4 2024$0.86 per share (Q3’24) $1.44 per share declared Raised
Balance sheet fundingDec 2024n/a$750M 10‑yr notes at 5.00% coupon Strengthened liquidity

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
AI/Data Centers & PowerBuilt largest DC platform; AirTrunk $16B; CoreWeave financing; data center pipeline; infra platform >$100B DeepSeek implications assessed; demand seen resilient; focus on long‑term leased DCs, no speculative builds; continued need for power; tenants signal builds Strong secular tailwind continues
Real Estate recoveryCalled bottom; deployment accelerated; improved debt markets and buyers; low new supply in logistics/apt Q4 equity returns negative on rate spike; management still confident in recovery path; cash flows resilient; exits later than PE Gradual recovery; timing pushed
Private Credit & InsurancePlatform >$430B; insurance AUM >$220B; 185bps IG private credit spread; ABF opportunity Insurance AUM ~$230B; 23 SMAs; 200bps excess spread; strong IG private credit demand; corporate partnerships (e.g., EQT) Expanding rapidly
Private Wealth1H’24 acceleration; new infra & multi‑asset credit products planned January post‑quarter best month in 2.5 years: >$1B each in BCRED/BXPE/new infra; BREIT redemptions down 97% from peak Re‑accelerating
Macro/PolicyDisinflation view; rate cuts supportive; improving transaction environment Disinflation still progressing; expect patient Fed; tariffs risk manageable given portfolio mix Constructive macro backdrop

Management Commentary

  • Stephen Schwarzman: “Blackstone reported one of the best quarters in our history… the key drivers of our business – inflows, investment activity and realizations – all reached their highest levels in two-and-a-half years” .
  • Jonathan Gray: “We deployed $134 billion in 2024… our credit insurance business continues to see huge momentum… we built a private credit juggernaut” .
  • Michael Chae: “FRE grew a remarkable 76% y/y to a record $1.8 billion… DE grew 56% y/y to $2.2 billion… net realizations increased 42% y/y to the highest level in 10 quarters” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Real estate outlook: Recovery drivers include healthy demand, sharply lower new supply, and tighter spreads/greater availability of debt; Q4 rate spike impacted marks; expect real estate realizations later vs PE .
  • Monetization cadence: “More constructive” in 2025; near term led by Private Equity; firm expects meaningfully higher activity in H2’25 .
  • AI/data center demand: Despite efficiency advances, management sees rising usage offsetting lower compute cost; power remains critical; strategy avoids speculative builds .
  • Insurance & IG private credit: Open-architecture model attracting insurers globally; ~200 bps excess spread versus liquid IG; 23 SMAs plus 4 strategic partners .
  • FRE margins and FRPR sensitivity: Base fee growth vs OpEx “good starting point” for 2025; FRPR has higher incremental margin in some products (e.g., core+), infrastructure FRPR effective margin lower while in development; firm manages comp holistically .

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to pull S&P Global consensus (EPS, revenue, EBITDA) for the relevant quarters, but S&P’s daily request limit was exceeded at the time of analysis; therefore, we cannot provide numerical “vs. consensus” outcomes for Q4 2024 or prior quarters [Values retrieved from S&P Global unavailable at time of request].
  • Implication: Focus on absolute performance and management disclosures; note particularly that a large, non‑recurring infrastructure crystallization boosted Q4 FRPR/DE and will not repeat in 2025, which consensus models likely reflect or will need to reflect .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Record fee engine with strong distributable cash flow: The platform’s fee baseline stepped up meaningfully in Q4; even as infra FRPR normalizes in 2025, BXPE and the wealth‑infra vehicle add new FRPR vectors .
  • Realizations inflect later: Expect a more visible pickup in H2 2025, with PE leading; patience warranted on real estate exits as the recovery plays through .
  • Credit & Insurance is a durable growth flywheel: Expanding insurer relationships, IG private credit and ABF should drive steady fee growth with modest cyclicality .
  • Real estate remains a 2025 option: Negative Q4 marks reflect rate volatility rather than cash flow deterioration; improving debt markets and low new supply support a turn later in cycle .
  • Capital formation and activity are back: Q4 saw the strongest inflows, deployment, and realizations in 2.5 years—evidence of a healthier transaction tape and BX’s sourcing advantage .
  • Watch 2025 mix: Smaller, periodic infra FRPR, rising BXPE FRPR, and H2‑weighted realizations set up a “different shape” to earnings next year; base fee growth and cost discipline remain key .
  • Balance sheet & dividend: Elevated liquidity and A+/A+ ratings underpin investment capacity and a higher Q4 dividend ($1.44), with policy targeting ~85% of DE to shareholders over time .

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